Modelling long-term greenhouse gas mitigation pathways for Mongolia

Mongolia relies heavily on fossil fuels to meet its energy demands and faces serious challenges to decarbonization.

In this paper, the authors assessed the potential for further emissions reductions in Mongolia post-2030. They quantified emissions for all major greenhouse gas emitting sectors from 2010 to 2019 based on historic data and projected to 2050 based on population and economic forecasts. The authors then modelled scenarios with the implementation of 49 different emissions mitigation measures to quantify their emissions reduction potential.

If no measures are put in place, the research showed, Mongolia’s greenhouse gas emissions could increase by 67% and 139% in 2030 and 2050, respectively, compared to 2019 levels. On the other hand, implementation of the 49 mitigation measures could reduce the country’s greenhouse gas emissions by 40% in 2050 compared to the baseline.

The authors noted, however, that the implementation of the mitigation measures is not guaranteed: many different barriers still need to be considered to ensure effective implementation. What is technically feasible for emissions reductions in Mongolia, and the possibility of full decarbonization, are still some way apart.